Nigeria

Context analysis

The security context in North Eastern Nigeria is complex and very fluid as the Armed Opposition Group (AOG) Boko Haram continues to conduct operations in large parts of the region and beyond in Chad, Niger and Cameroon. Since 2009, Boko Haram, which initially targeted mainly state institutions, increasingly started to target civilian populations. The spiral of violence between the AOG and local security forces has triggered massive population displacements (more than one million IDPs), while an estimated 20,000 people have been killed by Boko Haram directly, or collaterally as a result of operations conducted against them. NGOs operating in the North Eastern region face strong challenges in terms of access and security. Boko Haram, which claimed allegiance to ISIS in March 2015 and officially changed its name to Wilayat Gharb Afriqiya, retains a strong and proven capacity to conduct asymmetrical attacks on government and civilian targets, which they are expected to continue throughout 2016. In this context, access and security challenges for NGOs will remain high.

OPERATIONAL SINCE
2016

INSO FACTS & FIGURES

7
STAFF
43
NGO
MEMBERS
2.4 M
IDPs
(OCHA)

Gross Incident Rate

Jan to May 2017

The Gross Incident Rate (GIR) consists of all security incidents recorded and reported by INSO in this country for the stated period with no disaggregation or exclusion. It includes conflict and criminal related incidents; serious (i.e. bombings) and non-serious events (i.e. demonstrations); and both security improving (i.e. arrests/seizures) and security-deteriorating incidents (i.e. attacks). The Gross Incident Rate is valuable in providing a snapshot of the overall level of volatility in the country.  It is not valuable in assessing the specific risk to NGOs and/or whether a situation is becoming better or worse as changes in the GIR may be caused by both positive (more arrests) or negative (more attacks) trends.
Total
Jan to May 2017
Total incidents recorded in Nigeria this year to date. Updated monthly.




436
INCIDENTS
PER MONTH
Jan to May 2017
Total incidents per month for the current year to date. Updated monthly.



Roll mouse over chart for exact numbers.

AUTHOR
Jan to May 2017
Percentage of incidents by author* (arrests, government security operations, armed opposition, tribal and criminal activity). Updated monthly.

Roll mouse over chart for exact percentages.

NGO INCIDENT Rate

Jan to May 2017

The NGO Incident Rate (NIR) comprises a gross count of all incidents that involved an NGO in this country for the stated time period. It includes both criminal and conflict related events; serious (i.e. killings/abductions) and non-serious (i.e. threats, petty robbery) incidents; and occurrences of both direct, indirect and/or accidental/collateral involvement. The NIR is valuable in evaluating NGO general exposure to ambient insecurity in this country and whether there is a negative or positive directional trend over time. Where the NIR shows no clear pattern over time, specific NGO targeting is assumed not to be present however it is important to remember that rate changes are also affected by per-capita density and NGO mobility. Neither INSO nor any other entity we are aware of has meaningful data on these two components, meaning that numbers should be taken as gross indicators only.  
Total
Jan to May 2017
Total NGO incidents in Nigeria this year to date. Updated monthly.

12
NGO INCIDENTS
PER MONTH
Jan to May 2017
Total NGO incidents per month for the current year to date. Updated monthly.


Roll mouse over chart for exact numbers.

Type
Jan to May 2017
Percentage of incidents by type* (SAF, IED, intimidation etc). Updated monthly.


Roll mouse over chart for exact percentages.

NGO Fatality Rate

Jan to May 2017

The NGO Fatality Rate (NFR) comprises a total count of all NGO workers that have been killed or died in this country for the stated period. The count includes the national and international staff of NGOs and the Red Cross organisations only and does not include the staff of the United Nations unless otherwise stated. The count includes both criminal and conflict related causes; targeted and accidental deaths and all types of weapons/tactics. The NGO Fatality Rate works with the NIR and is valuable in determining the likelihood of this most serious result and whether there is a negative or positive directional trend over time. Where there is no clear upwards trend in NGO deaths, we assess that systematic targeting of NGOs does not exist and that deaths rather occur as a result of exposure to ambient insecurity albeit with occasional targeted events.
Total
Jan to May 2017
Total NGO fatalities in Nigeria this year to date. Updated monthly.



0
NGO FATALITIES
PER MONTH
Jan to May 2017
Total NGO fatalities per month for the current year to date. Updated monthly.


Roll mouse over chart for exact numbers.

NATIONALITY
Jan to May 2017
Percentage of national and international NGO staff fatalities. Updated monthly.


Roll mouse over chart for exact percentages.

0
NO DATA

NGO Injury Rate

Jan to May 2017

The NGO Injury Rate comprises a total count of all NGO workers that have been injured in this country for the stated period. The count includes the national and international staff of NGOs and the Red Cross Red Crescent Movement only and does not include the staff of the United Nations unless otherwise stated. The count includes both accidental and deliberate causes. In the case where an individual subsequently dies from their injuries, they have been removed from this count and added to the NFR.
Total
Jan to May 2017
Total NGO injuries in Nigeria this year to date. Updated monthly.



0
NGO INJURIES
PER MONTH
Jan to May 2017
Total NGO injuries per month for the current year to date. Updated monthly.


Roll mouse over chart for exact numbers.

NATIONALITY
Jan to May 2017
Percentage of national and international NGO staff injuries. Updated monthly.


Roll mouse over chart for exact percentages.

0
NO DATA

NGO Abduction Rate

Jan to May 2017

The NGO Abduction Rate comprises a total count of all NGO workers that have been abducted in this country for the stated period. The count includes the national and international staff of NGOs and the Red Cross Red Crescent Movement only and does not include the staff of the United Nations unless otherwise stated. For this purpose "abduction" includes all cases of NGO workers being taken against their will and unlawfully for any purpose and for any duration. Some abductions turn in to kidnapping (where political or criminal demands are made) and some in to detentions (where the victim is released without demand). 
Total
Jan to May 2017
Total NGO abductions in Nigeria this year to date. Updated monthly.



0
NGO ABDUCTIONS
PER MONTH
Jan to May 2017
Total NGO abductions per month for the current year to date. Updated monthly.


Roll mouse over chart for exact numbers.

NATIONALITY
Jan to May 2017
Percentage of national and international NGO staff abductions. Updated monthly.


Roll mouse over chart for exact percentages.

0
NO DATA
REPORTS SENT
151
ALERTS SENT
79
NGO ROUNDTABLES HOSTED
37
ORIENTATION BRIEFING
4
INSO NGO Service: Jan to May 2017

Key Risks & Mitigation Measures

Risk

Collateral exposure to AOG attacks: Numerous asymmetrical and spectacular attacks occur on a regular basis in north-eastern Nigeria. There is a long history of IED / suicide bombing etc. in the north east.

Risk

Kidnapping: Although there is no recent history of kidnapping of NGO workers in the north-eastern Nigeria, the increased number NGOs in the area raises the profile and visibility of NGO workers. With regular criminal kidnapping incidents occurring in other parts of the country, there is a real potential that AOG may revert to kidnapping tactics for economic or political gain.

Risk

Roadblocks: Violent improvised illegal roadblocks by AOG are a regular feature of north-eastern Nigeria.

Mitigation

Situational awareness is key (i.e. mapping of hot zones, most likely timing of attacks). NGOs should also ensure staff have followed personal security training and have a medevac plan in place.

Mitigation

Situational awareness is key (i.e. mapping of hot zones, most likely timing of attacks). NGOs should also employ strong community acceptance strategies, make sure compounds are secure, control staff movement and keep a low profile when in transit.

Mitigation

Situational awareness is key (i.e. mapping of hot zones, most likely timing of attacks). NGOs should also employ strong community acceptance strategies, make sure compounds are secure, control staff movement, keep a low profile when in transit. and travel in convoys. Check and use communications equipment.

Risk

Collateral exposure to AOG attacks: Numerous asymmetrical and spectacular attacks occur on a regular basis in north-eastern Nigeria. There is a long history of IED / suicide bombing etc. in the north east.

Mitigation

Situational awareness is key (i.e. mapping of hot zones, most likely timing of attacks). NGOs should also ensure staff have followed personal security training and have a medevac plan in place.


Risk

Kidnapping: Although there is no recent history of kidnapping of NGO workers in the north-eastern Nigeria, the increased number NGOs in the area raises the profile and visibility of NGO workers. With regular criminal kidnapping incidents occurring in other parts of the country, there is a real potential that AOG may revert to kidnapping tactics for economic or political gain.

Mitigation

Situational awareness is key (i.e. mapping of hot zones, most likely timing of attacks). NGOs should also employ strong community acceptance strategies, make sure compounds are secure, control staff movement and keep a low profile when in transit.


Risk

Roadblocks: Violent improvised illegal roadblocks by AOG are a regular feature of north-eastern Nigeria.

Mitigation

Situational awareness is key (i.e. mapping of hot zones, most likely timing of attacks). NGOs should also employ strong community acceptance strategies, make sure compounds are secure, control staff movement, keep a low profile when in transit. and travel in convoys. Check and use communications equipment.